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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”