Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.