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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still