Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The mean figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide figures might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, noting that in November the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it might obscure periods when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.