Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
